From Top Electric.

The decline in Canadian potato exports to the U.S., down 40% in Q2 2025, signals a shifting economic landscape between these neighboring nations. Over 140,000 tons of potatoes, enough to supply 17 million U.S. households, have stopped crossing the border, driven by a U.S. tariff hike to 35% on Canadian potatoes. This has increased costs by 8–12 cents per pound, pushing retail prices for a 50-pound bag from $22 to $28–$30. U.S. consumers face higher prices for fries, while restaurants adjust menus or reduce portions. Canadian processors like McCain scale back contracts, and farmers in PEI, New Brunswick, and Alberta cut planting by 15–25%. Meanwhile, Canada pivots to domestic markets and new trade partners like Japan, South Korea, and Indonesia, backed by a $1.6 billion CAD deal. This shift stabilizes domestic prices, supports local food programs, and reduces reliance on the U.S., where 92% of Canada’s potato exports traditionally flowed. However, challenges like Asian market logistics and reliance on large corporations persist. The potato trade disruption reflects broader supply chain fractures, with potential implications for meat, dairy, and grains. As U.S. input costs rise and consumers feel the pinch, this unassuming staple highlights a fraying North American trade framework, raising questions about future economic stability.

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