From Top Electric.

President Donald Trump’s announcement on May 30, 2025, to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, has ignited a fierce trade dispute with Canada, a major supplier of these metals to the U.S. Unveiled during a rally celebrating Nippon Steel’s investment in American industry, the tariff hike aims to protect domestic markets but threatens Canada’s $35 billion steel and aluminum trade. Prime Minister Mark Carney condemned the move as an attack on Canadian workers, particularly in Alberta, where the metals industry faces potential collapse. In retaliation, Canada has threatened to redirect or halt $1.3 billion in oil exports, leveraging its position as the world’s fourth-largest crude oil producer and a key supplier of 4 million barrels daily to U.S. refineries. This could spike U.S. gasoline prices by $0.30–$0.40 per gallon, risking consumer backlash and supply chain disruptions. Canada’s growing oil export capacity to Asia via the Trans Mountain pipeline bolsters its leverage, though pivoting fully from the U.S. market remains challenging. The escalating tensions risk a trade war, with both nations facing economic fallout—Canada with job losses and the U.S. with higher costs. As diplomatic talks loom, the outcome hinges on whether Trump’s aggressive stance or Carney’s oil card will prevail, or if a compromise can avert a breakdown in U.S.-Canada relations. This high-stakes showdown underscores the fragility of global trade networks.

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